The NOAA forecast for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season is out and it calls for a mostly average season. The forecast calls for 9-15 named storms, 4-8 hurricanes, and 2-4 major hurricanes. An average season produces 12 named storms with 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. According to NOAA these ranges are provided with a 70% level of confidence.
NOAA lists competing factors involved in this season’s forecast. First off an El NiƱo pattern is expected to persist through much of the season. That typically means more wind shear across the Atlantic which tends to limit the strengthening of storms and also serves to push them farther east.
However warmer than average water is expected in the Atlantic and Caribbean which could make it easier for storms to strengthen. Also an enhanced west African monsoon is predicted which favors increased tropical activity.
Remember the numbers and predictions are not the important things to keep in mind. What you should be doing is getting prepared. It only takes one storm making landfall in your area to be an active season. Have emergency plans in place including where you would evacuate, what you need to take with you, what you need if you stay, and make sure insurance is up to date and that you have a flood insurance policy.
As always stay with WGNO on air and online through hurricane season for the latest updates.